Northwestern looks for third bowl in a row

By Brian Heinemann

For The Herald

Northwestern Coach Pat Fitzgerald is nothing if not confident.

With over 30 players returning who have starting experience and a team that’s gone to back-to-back bowls, he has every reason to be.

“With the number of starters we have coming back, we're excited about 2010,” he said.  “We have 17 wins over the last two years. And that foundation of success, I think, has provided us with motivation to take the next step.”

The next step for the Wildcats is to not just make their third straight bowl game – something the school has never done – but to win a bowl. The past two seasons have ended in overtime, both heartbreaking and motivating to the Wildcats.

The Wildcats ended the 2009 regular season on a wave of momentum, ousting Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin. That momentum could lead to a big start to the 2010, as the nonconference slate isn’t particularly challenging and the first few conference games are very winnable.

The surge started with the win at Iowa, a game that new starting quarterback Dan Persa got valuable experience in.

“Obviously, to play and win in that atmosphere meant a lot to our team, built our confidence a lot,” Persa said. “We took a lot from that game.”

Northwestern has a lot of skill on offense, a squad which topped the Big Ten in passing last year. But rushing is the problem, and that’s where the Wildcats have to improve if they want to contend for a Big Ten title.

“If you want to win the championship in this league, you have got to be able to run the football efficiently,” Fitzgerald said. “We define that by four or more on first down, half or more on second down, pick it up on third and fourth, and score on the goal line. It's not a complicated equation, but we definitely need to be better there.”

If they are, then my No. 7 team in the Big Ten, with a defense that has been getting better every year and returns a strong core this year, could finish near the top three of the Big Ten. 

If they aren’t, and they falter with a tough November schedule, they’ll finish in the middle of the pack or worse.

Northwestern Wildcats

Last year: 8-5, 5-3 Big Ten (tied for fourth)

Lettermen returning/lost: 55 returning, 20 lost

Starters returning/lost: offense 8/3, defense 6/5, kickers 1/1.

Key returning starters:Drake Dunsmore, SB, Jr.; Quentin Davie, LB, Sr.; Corbin Bryant, DT, Sr.

Others to watch: Dan Persa, QB, Jr.; David Arnold, S, Jr. (switched from linebacker to safety before the Outback Bowl last year); Arby Fields, RB, So.

By the numbers: 0 - times Northwestern has gone to three consecutive bowl games in school history, something they try to accomplish this year. 1 - rank of the passing offense in the Big Ten last year. 61 - years since Northwestern has won a bowl game.

Schedule: Six winnable games open the season, including Vanderbilt in the Sept. 4 opener and Central Michigan Sept. 25. NU opens Big Ten play with Minnesota Oct. 2 and Purdue Oct. 9 before hosting Michigan State Oct. 23. A tough November awaits the Wildcats, with road trips to Penn State Nov. 6 and Wisconsin Nov. 27, a home game against Iowa Nov. 13, and a game at Wrigley Field with Illinois Nov. 20.

Reason for optimism: The schedule and the pass offense. The Wildcats have a very realistic shot at starting 6-0, and if they can take down Michigan State at home, could be 8-0 heading into November, and they avoid Ohio State. The offense, despite having a new quarterback, ranked first in passing and fourth overall in the Big Ten last year and should put up big numbers again. New QB Persa gained valuable big-game experience against Iowa and Penn State last year.

Reason for pessimism: The late schedule and the rush offense. November is going to be a hard month for the Wildcats to find a win in, and unless they do win at least seven of their first eight, they could finish lower than anticipated in the Big Ten. The rush offense must improve after finishing 95th in the nation last year, but Fields, the projected starter, only ran for 302 yards in 13 games last year.

Bottom line: Northwestern should easily make it to its third bowl in a row, a first for the school. A fourth-place finish in the Big Ten, matching last year, isn’t out of the realm of possibilities, but the Wildcats will need some big upsets, akin to last year’s wins at Iowa and at home against Wisconsin in November. Expect them to finish in the bottom half of the conference, barely.

Tomorrow – No. 6: The Spartans could surprise the entire Big Ten