Hawkeyes quick hits, pregame week 1

Today was Iowa's pre-game press conference prior to the Eastern Illinois game, and Kirk Ferentz and a handful of players were available to the media.

I'll have a full-blown article for Friday morning's edition of the Herald, but for now, here are some of the quick hits you need to know about.

Koeppel injured in moped-meets-truck accident
One of the two in competition for the starting center position, Josh Koeppel, was injured Monday while riding his moped. Koeppel was not wearing a helmet and was struck by a truck in an intersection. He was taken to the emergency room, and Ferentz said he is lucky he walked away from it and that it could have been a lot worse.

Koeppel is banged up with scrapes and bruises and is sore, but all tests came back fine. Don't expect him to play Saturday, though. Looks like James Ferentz will be the starting center, whether he won the job in camp or not.

Tarpinian limited, but back in practice
Linebacker Jeff Tarpinian broke his hand in practice two weeks ago, but returned over the weekend with a splint and padding. He's limited, according to Ferentz, and may or may not play.

Bruce Davis, another linebacker, hinted that he would be getting plenty of playing time this weekend and has been practicing with the ones, so expect to not see much of Tarpinian.

Running back depth chart has some surprises
With Jewel Hampton's suspension and Brandon Wegher's disappearance, we all knew Adam Robinson would be Iowa's starting running back Saturday. Paki O'Meara is now the backup, for better or worse, but the third back on the depth chart may surprise some.

Sophomore Jason White is third on the Hawkeyes depth chart, over Marcus Coker, who hasn't recovered fully from injury but may be available as early as the Iowa State game, and De'Andre Johnson, who sounds like is getting a redshirt.

Prater iffy for Saturday
Projected starting corner Shaun Prater is "working his way back," Ferentz said Tuesday. He has a hamstring issue, and is iffy, at best, for Saturday.

"I don't know if he will make it by showtime or not," said Ferentz. "We will see. Those things are tricky and tough to predict."

Four freshmen expected to contribute immediately
Per Ferentz, four freshmen are expected to see time Saturday, with a handful of others in line to potentially play this season.

For now, expect to see linebackers James Morris and Christian Kirksey, along with tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz and kicker Mike Meyers to play this weekend.

Meyers, a freshman walk-on, is expected to be the kickoff specialist, although he has an outside shot at field goals, Ferentz said.


Special teams set...sort of
We know Meyers will be kicking off and Ryan Donahue will be punting, but between Daniel Murray and Trent Mossbrucker, the kicking competition is still wide open. Ferentz expects to make a decision by Friday, allowing the team to know who stands where before kickoff.

In return news, your kick returners are Derrell Johnson-Koulianos and Keenan Davis. Punt returns will be handled by Colin Sandeman, with Marvin McNutt surprisingly in as his backup.

Binns' absence opens door for Daniels
With Broderick Binns missing the opener due to a one-game suspension, the door has opened for junior Mike Daniels. Ferentz said that Christian Ballard will probably play both tackle and end Saturday, but start on the outside, allowing Daniels to start on the inside.

Expect to see fellow junior Lebron Daniel get plenty of time in the rotation as well.

Captains named
Iowa's captains for the opener against Eastern Illinois are - quarterback Ricky Stanzi, defensive end Adrian Clayborn, defensive tackle Karl Klug, and offensive guard Julian Vandervelde.

Buckeyes poised for sixth straight Big Ten title

By Brian Heinemann
For The Herald

Much like every year in recent memory, the Ohio State Buckeyes enter the 2010 season with a giant bulls-eye on their backs. 

With the way they handled Oregon in the Rose Bowl and the experience they bring back, it should come as no surprise that the Buckeyes are my favorite to win their sixth straight Big Ten title.

“I think we should be a team that’s being targeted. I know we’ll be a team that’s being targeted,” Coach Jim Tressel said. “And we’ll always get everyone’s best shot. And with that in mind, we better make sure our best shot’s ready each Saturday. But it’s just part of the deal.”

The Buckeyes are clearly used to these kinds of expectations. They are also used to winning a lot of football games, something that isn’t likely to change in the near future.

“There’s always high expectations,” Dane Sanzenbacher, a senior receiver, said. “We know that if we take care of everything we need to take care of, things will fall into place for us. We expect to win when we’re on the field. We prepare to win.”

There are several major hurdles on the schedule, though, each of which has the power to derail what is expected to be a championship season for Ohio State. A home date with Miami in Week 2 will be crucial, and road contests at Wisconsin and Iowa will likely decide the pecking order at the top of the conference.

To live up to expectations in 2010, the Buckeyes are going to need their quarterback to improve his passing, as Terrelle Pryor completed just 56.6 percent of his passes last year in leading the Big Ten’s worst passing attack.

Things turned around in the Rose Bowl, where Pryor was terrific in ousting the Ducks.

“I thought he learned a great deal throughout the regular season his sophomore year,” Tressel said. “And I thought it really started to really crystallize in his mind during bowl practice. He really focused on becoming the best he could be. And now he has a new team that he’s, without questions, looked to for leadership.”

The defense should again be ranked in single digits in the country, so the hopes and expectations of the Buckeyes’ season rests squarely on the shoulders of Pryor. 

Even if he shows only marginal improvement from last year, his running ability and game-changing talent should carry Ohio State to yet another Big Ten title.

Ohio State Buckeyes

Last year: 11-2, 7-1 Big Ten, first place

Lettermen returning/lost: 48 returning, 21 lost.

Starters returning/lost: Offense 9/2, defense 6/5, kickers 0/2.

Key returning starters: Terrelle Pryor, QB, Jr.; Cameron Heyward, DE, Sr.; DeVier Posey, WR, Jr.; Chimdi Chekwa, CB, Sr.

Others to watch: Ross Homan, LB, Sr.; John Simon, DT, So.; Brandon Saine, TB, Sr.; Brian Rolle, LB, Sr.

By the numbers: 5 - straight Big Ten titles (shared or outright) for the Buckeyes. 779 - rush yards by Pryor, the team leader in 2009. 104 - rank of Ohio State’s pass defense in 2009, worst in the Big Ten.

Schedule: After opening against Marshall Sept. 2, Ohio State hosts a very talented Miami Hurricanes team Sept. 11 in one of the biggest games of the year. The next four games will see the Buckeyes as huge favorites, and the Big Ten schedule starts light, with Illinois Oct. 2 an Indiana Oct. 9. A date at Wisconsin Oct. 16 follows, with games against Purdue and Minnesota providing breathing room before another late-season gauntlet. Like last year, Ohio State faces Penn State, Iowa and Michigan to close the season, Nov. 13, Nov. 20, and Nov. 27 respectively, with Iowa being the one road game of the three.

Reason for optimism: Talent across the board, offensive experience. The Buckeyes are loaded almost everywhere, and with Pryor’s development last year, culminating in a huge performance in the Rose Bowl, the offense looks should greatly improve from last season, a scary thought for their opponents. The defense was one of the nation’s best in almost every category last year, and brings back a slew of big names and top performers.

Reason for pessimism: Pryor’s passing. Really, Terrelle Pryor is the one major question mark for the Buckeyes. Will he continue to improve, as he did late in 2009, or will he still be the same inconsistent passer? The Buckeyes pass offense ranked near the bottom of the entire nation last year, and even with an overpowering defense, a weak passing game could kill the Buckeyes championship hopes.

Bottom line: This team is simply too talented to not win at least 10 games, which should be considered the worst-case scenario. Even a stumble against Miami in Week 2 wouldn’t derail the Buckeyes season, although road trips with Wisconsin and Iowa should prove to be difficult. Expect Pryor to improve again this year – although not live up to his full potential or hype – en route to leading the Buckeyes to either the Rose Bowl or BCS National Championship game.

Hawkeyes look BCS bound again, but not best in Big Ten

By Brian Heinemann

For The Herald

Defense wins championships. 

An uncertain offense, however, may be enough to prevent the Iowa Hawkeyes from doing so this season. Especially with Big Ten bully Ohio State looking even better than last year.

“We have tremendous special teams and defense, so when you’ve got those things on your side as an offense, you don’t really have to go out there and score 50 points,” Iowa quarterback Ricky Stanzi said. “We have guys that can stop people from scoring.”

At some point, though, Iowa is going to have to score. The offense showed flashes last year, with Stanzi throwing for 17 touchdowns, running backs Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegher combining for almost 1,500 yards and 13 touchdowns, and the emergence of Marvin McNutt at receiver.

But losing their starting center, two offensive tackles and a star tight end may be too much for Iowa to overcome this year. The offensive line is sorely lacking big game experience, and the running game, even with the return of Jewel Hampton, is suspect after finishing 99th in the country last year.

When you have a defense as good as Iowa has, though, all you need to do is limit mistakes. You can get by with a little less scoring, which is why the Hawkeyes still have a realistic shot at a Big Ten title.

“You have to let the defense do what they do, which usually is not let people move very far,” Stanzi said.

Helping the Hawkeyes is the schedule, which features home games against all the elite teams in the Big Ten. Outside of Ohio State, all of those teams will be coming looking for revenge, but the fact that tilts with Penn State, Wisconsin and Michigan State will all take place at Kinnick Stadium this year is big. 

Advantage, Iowa. Or is it?

“It was a big discussion point a year ago about our road schedule, and now it’s flipped around obviously,” Coach Kirk Ferentz said. “We really played well on the road for the most part last year. Conversely, it wasn’t like we just played lights out at home. We didn't have a lot of real smooth games here.

“I would just anticipate just about all of our games, if not all, are going to be really competitive, really tough, home or away.”

Iowa Hawkeyes

Last year: 11-2, 6-2 Big Ten, tied for second place

Lettermen returning/lost: 48 returning, 20 lost.

Starters returning/lost: Offense 6/5, defense 8/3, kickers 2/0.

Key returning starters: Ricky Stanzi, QB, Sr.; Adrian Clayborn, DE, Sr.; Tyler Sash, SS, Jr.

Others to watch: Riley Reiff, LT, So.; Micah Hyde, CB, So.; Jewel Hampton, RB, So. (missed last year due to injury); C.J. Fiedorowicz, TE, Fr.

By the numbers: 4 - national rank of Iowa’s pass defense in 2009. 86 - rank of Iowa’s scoring offense last year. 26 - sacks by Iowa’s front four last year; all four return.

Schedule: Iowa opens at home Sept. 4 with Eastern Illinois and hosts rival Iowa State on Sept. 11. A crucial road trip to Arizona and a 9:35 p.m. start time awaits Sept. 18, and the Hawkeyes return home for games with Ball State Sept. 25 and Penn State Oct. 2 in the Big Ten opener. Oct. 16 Iowa travels to Michigan, then comes back home to host Wisconsin Oct. 23 and Michigan State Oct. 30. Road games at Indiana and Northwestern come next – Nov. 6 and Nov. 13 – before the likely Big Ten championship game at home with Ohio State Nov. 20. The season closes out on the road at Minnesota Nov. 27.

Reason for optimism: The defense and home field advantage. Iowa’s defense, ranked 10th nationally last year, returns eight starters, including the entire dominant front four. The schedule is friendly in that Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan State and Ohio State, most of the Big Ten’s top teams, all have to come to Kinnick Stadium. 

Reason for pessimism: Offensive inconsistency and the offensive line. Iowa’s offense has the capability to be explosive, but Stanzi needs to cut down on his interceptions (15 last year) and the running game needs to greatly improve. The offensive line will be the deciding factor in how the 2010 season goes, though, and that’s a scary thought, as the likely starting five has minimal experience outside of Julian Vandervelde and Reiff.

Bottom line: This team is entirely capable of going 12-0 and ending up in the BCS National Championship game, assuming teams ahead of them fall off. The defense is one of the NCAA’s best, but the offense has too many questions, with an inexperienced offensive line, a weak rushing attack and a mistake-prone quarterback. Still, the Hawkeyes have tremendous poise and resiliency, and should be in the BCS again with an 11-1 season.

Tomorrow – No. 1: Ohio State once again cream of Big Ten crop

Offense puts Wisconsin near the top of the Big Ten

By Brian Heinemann

For The Herald

With 10 starters back from the Big Ten’s most explosive and productive offense of 2009, the 2010 version of the Wisconsin Badgers figures to be scary good.

Will it be enough to get them through a mid-October schedule that includes back-to-back games with conference favorites Iowa and Ohio State, though? Probably not, unless the defense recovers from a disappointing 2009 campaign.

“We expect to be the most physical team on the field every Saturday,” senior safety Jay Valai said. “I think we’re more hungry than we’ve ever been. We have a lot of guys who’ve been one-year players who are just ready to go for the second bout. I think we’re going to surprise a lot of people on defense.”

They’ll need to if they want to finish above No. 3 in the conference. While they topped the Big Ten in rush defense last year, three of the front four are gone this year. That won’t help the pass defense, which gave up 21 touchdown passes a year ago and struggled to a middle-of-the-conference ranking.

With the offense the Badgers have, one has to wonder if it will really matter if the defense struggles a bit. The Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year from 2009, running back John Clay, returns for his junior year. Clay led the league in rushing last year and ran for 18 touchdowns, numbers that he could easily improve upon with the entire offensive line returning.

The guy handing him the ball isn’t too bad, himself. Scott Tolzien, now a senior, is one of the top quarterbacks in the conference, and he learned some valuable lessons from last year.

“I do believe one of the things that he really struggled with a year ago he was so successful in high school, academically and athletically, he never had experienced failure,” Coach Brett Bielema said. “ He never experienced anything that kind of was a bump in the road. When we had a couple of those it really took him back. And he's really done a good job of observing. 

“I thought the best quote I saw him from out of season was somebody asked him about what he learned during the winter film studies, and he said: I'm just finally happy that the guy on film is me.”

Wisconsin Badgers

Last year: 10-5, 5-3 Big Ten (tied for fourth)

Lettermen returning/lost: 46 returning, 20 lost.

Starters returning/lost: Offense 10/1, defense 6/5, kickers 2/0.

Key returning starters: Scott Tolzien, QB, Sr.; John Clay, TB, Jr.; J.J. Watt, DE, Jr.

Others to watch: Mike Taylor, OLB, So. (led team in tackles before ACL injury last year); Gabe Carimi, LT, Sr.; Devin Smith, CB, Jr.

By the numbers: 10 - straight opponents to fail to rush for 100 yards against Wisconsin. 28 - points separating Wisconsin from Ohio State and Iowa last year. 6 - teams that averaged 200 yards rushing and passing last year; Wisconsin was one of them.

Schedule: The only potential challenge in the first month is a Sept. 18 date with Arizona State. Big Ten play begins at Michigan State on Oct. 2, with the key stretch being in the second half of October, as the Badgers host Ohio State Oct. 16 and travel to Iowa Oct. 23. The four November games will see Wisconsin favored, at Purdue and Michigan and home 

against Indiana and Northwestern. 

Reason for optimism: Offensive continuity and balance. The Badgers return all but their tight end, and should be a powerhouse offensively with one of the best QBs in the Big Ten, Tolzien, and one of the best RBs in the nation, Clay. Clay had offseason surgery to remove bone spurs and bone fragments from his ankles, meaning he’s liable to be even more explosive.

Reason for pessimism: The defense and the October schedule. Wisconsin’s defense loses three of its front four, and the secondary gave up a ton of touchdowns through the air last year. With the defensive experience, the mid-October back-to-back with Ohio State and Iowa could be killer.

Bottom line: This is a legitimate Big Ten contender, with one of the best offenses in the country and a schedule that should see them favored in 10 of 12. The Badgers have the ability to knock off Ohio State or Iowa, but the defense will likely prevent them from doing so. 

Tomorrow – No. 1 and No. 2 revealed: Do the Hawkeyes have enough to unseat Ohio State?

Michigan set to rebound in a big way

By Brian Heinemann

For The Herald

It’s been a rough past two years for the University of Michigan football team and Rich Rodriguez. 

Last year started promising enough before ending with a 1-7 debacle in Big Ten play. But this year the Wolverines return nearly their entire starting offense – a squad that ranked near the top of the conference – and are switching schemes on defense to try to improve that unit.

“The last two years, there have been quite a lot of experiences, a lot of drama, so to speak,” Rodriguez said. “But I think our guys have stayed focus. It's fun to be around them, watching them grow up, see our young guys get some experience, take their lumps a little bit.”

Rodriguez acknowledges that the team has questions on both sides of the ball, namely at the quarterback and safety positions. Safety is one area that Rodriguez believes the team could need to rely on a true freshman, but at quarterback there are three options, two of whom played in every game last year, for the team to choose from.

Sophomores Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson are both back, although neither distanced himself from the other last season or this spring. They are being pushed by true freshman Devin Gardner, a blue-chipper who had a strong spring.

“Offensively, we should be better up front,” Rodriguez said. “A lot more experience on the offensive line than we had the last two years. Last year playing the two freshmen quarterbacks at times we were productive, but other times we weren't. And that's to be expected.  But those guys should be better.”

Rodriguez has had three years to install and tweak his system at Michigan, and his personal recruits are starting to get the experience needed to help the team gel.

“We’ve been down for a couple of years,” said senior cornerback Troy Woolfolk. “I think this is the year we finally come back to the old Michigan. I think this is that year that we come back and show our opponents that we can be good.”

They may not get all the way back to old Michigan, but expect the Wolverines, my No. 4 pick, to surprise some teams and end up just a little bit behind the conference front runners.

Michigan Wolverines

Last year: 5-7, 1-7 Big Ten (tied for 10th)

Lettermen returning/lost: 53 returning, 24 lost

Starters returning/lost: offense 9/2, defense 8/3, kickers 0/2.

Key returning starters: Tate Forcier, QB, So.; Denard Robinson, QB, So.; Roy Roundtree, WR, So.; Troy Woolfolk, CB, Sr.

Others to watch: Vincent Smith, RB, So.; Martavious Odoms, WR, Jr.; Mark Moundros, FB/LB, Sr.

By the numbers: 50 - years since Michigan has had three straight losing seasons in the Big Ten. 14 - interceptions thrown between Forcier and Robinson, only one less than the 15 touchdowns they had combined. 29.5 - points scored per game last year, third in the conference.

Schedule: Things start and end tough for Michigan. They open Sept. 4 with Connecticut and travel to Notre Dame a week later before playing three games they will be favored in. October has a three-game stretch with Michigan State and Iowa at home, followed by a road trip to Penn State Oct. 30. After Illinois Nov. 6 and Purdue Nov. 13, Michigan closes at home with Wisconsin Nov. 20 and at Ohio State Nov. 27.

Reason for optimism: Offensive experience, returning defensive coordinator. The offense returns almost everybody, including both quarterbacks and the top three receivers. Having a defensive coordinator return for the first time in five years can only help the defense, which switches to a 3-3-5 scheme.

Reason for pessimism: Quarterback quandary, turnover margin. Neither Forcier nor Robinson stood out last year, and neither stood out this spring. Without consistency at the position, the offense can never fully get going. Last year Michigan finished 115th in turnover margin, a number that won’t improve much if neither quarterback takes care of the ball.

Bottom line: There are some red flags – the tough schedule, the youth, the quarterback position – but Michigan showed flashes of brilliance last year. With so many offensive starters back and a new defensive scheme, their is plenty of cause for optimism in Ann Arbor. This team can finish anywhere from the bottom of the Big Ten to near the top, but in his third year, expect Rich Rodriguez to finally start having some of the success he enjoyed at West Virginia.

Tomorrow – No. 3: Ten returning starters power Wisconsin’s offense

Historically tough road schedule could keep Penn State down

By Brian Heinemann

For The Herald

Penn State enters the 2010 football season having to do something no team has ever done before – play three BCS bowl winners from the previous year, all on the road. 

All three of those teams – Alabama, Iowa and Ohio State – will likely be ranked in the Top 10 to start the season. The Nittany Lions have some questions that need to be answered quick if they have any hope of taking down the defending champion Crimson Tide, the first of the three they’ll play.

“The Alabama team's a good football team, if not the best team around,” Coach Joe Paterno said. “But I think it's a good game for us. It's a good game early. I have a young team. Obviously we've got some growing up to do. 

“And I think to be able to go with a bunch of kids and go down there and play the defending national champion on the road before a very hostile crowd, I think it would be a good experience. We'll be a better football team for it.”

The biggest area of concern is at quarterback, where Penn State has to replace it’s all-time touchdown leader in Daryll Clark. A sophomore will likely win the job, either former walk-on Matthew McGloin or Kevin Newsome, but both are nearly-unknown commodities.

They still have a stingy, dominating defense that ranked No. 9 nationally last year and some key weapons for whichever quarterback wins the job to play with in running back Evan Royster and wide receivers Derek Moye and Graham Zug.

It’s the youth and the inexperienced players that will determine what happens this season, though, and for that reason I’ve pegged Penn State as the fifth-best team in the Big Ten, a drop-off from the last few years.

“I don’t really know what to expect. We’ve got some young guys that we think can really come in and play, though,” Royster said. “Our season really relies on them, more so than our older guys. We’re filling some pretty important spots that we lost this last year. I think we feel pretty confident going into the season, but at the same time, we really don’t know.”

Penn State Nittany Lions

Last year: 11-2, 6-2 Big Ten (tied for second)

Lettermen returning/lost: 36 returning, 21 lost

Starters returning/lost: offense 7/4, defense 5/6, kickers 1/1.

Key returning starters: Evan Royster, TB, Sr.; Derek Moye, WR, Jr.; Drew Astorino, HERO (safety/linebacker), Jr.

Others to watch: Graham Zug, WR, Sr.; Kevin Newsome and Matthew McGloin, QBs, So’s.

By the numbers: 3 - the number of BCS Bowl winners Penn State has to face on the road this year. 24 - regular season games in a row Penn State has held its opponent to 24 or fewer points. 481 - yards Royster needs to become the school’s all-time leading rusher.

Schedule: After a Sept. 4 tune-up with Youngstown State, Penn State travels to Alabama to face the defending BCS champions Sept. 11. Dates with Kent State and Temple separate that game from a road trip to Iowa Oct. 2, followed by four straight the Lions should be favored in. A visit to Ohio State Nov. 13 is the big late season game, although a home game with Michigan State to close the season Nov. 27 could have big bowl-placement implications.

Reason for optimism: Royster’s return, the defense. Evan Royster’s return provides a huge boost for a team with several glaring holes on offense and gives them a solid back to lean on all year while they figure out the quarterback position. The defense finished ninth in the nation and second in conference last year, and should be nearly as strong in 2010.

Reason for pessimism: Quarterback uncertainty and the road schedule. Penn State doesn’t have a quarterback right now, and neither option, Newsome or McGloin, stands out. Couple the inexperienced quarterbacks with an unheard-of road schedule, and you have a recipe for disaster.

Bottom line: Getting to double-digit wins again is going to be a chore for the Nittany Lions, who will struggle to win at least one of their big three road games. Going undefeated at home isn’t out of the question, but some questions marks, particularly quarterback, make this a down year – albeit a likely top-five finish in conference – for Penn State.

Tomorrow – No. 4: Michigan, Rodriguez set for major turnaround

Jones’ return helps raise expectations for Michigan State

By Brian Heinemann

For The Herald

Don’t be surprised to see the Michigan State Spartans right in the thick of the Big Ten hunt come late November.

With the returning Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year in linebacker Greg Jones and an explosive passing attack, the Spartans have the potential to shock the conference and contend for a title just a year after finishing 6-7.

“We have a lot of young players,” Coach Mark Dantonio said. “We are poised. I believe we'll have a very, very good football team this year and we look to continue to compete.  This will be a very tough conference as always, and the margin of error is not very big.”

It’s for those reasons, though, that the Spartans come in at No. 6 in my preseason Big Ten rankings. Despite their potential, there are too many questions and too many stumbling blocks on the schedule.

The one certain thing about the Spartans is the game-changing ability of Jones, who passed up an opportunity at the NFL to return for his senior year.

“I think not only from a physical standpoint but from a psychological standpoint, it talks about his maturity as a person and talks about our overall program in terms of where we're at as a football program that he would decide to come back,” Dantonio said. “He has a great physical presence on the field. He's a first‑team All‑Big Ten player, first‑team All‑American player, and certainly through the middle of our defense gives us a guy who can make plays throughout our entire defense and all over the field.”

The Spartans are switching to more of a 3-4 defense this year, partly in an effort to free up Jones to make even more plays. Another reason for the switch is poor pass coverage, as the team finished ranked near the bottom of the entire nation last year in that area.

Dantonio said that, even with some lofty expectations around the program, there is no reason for the team to be overconfident about anything.

“From the way our players have worked thus far and winter workouts, spring practice and now summer conditioning, it would not seem that we're overconfident,” he said. “We have some things that we need to prove. I think that's very evident.”

Michigan State Spartans

Last year: 6-7, 4-4 Big Ten (tied for sixth)

Lettermen returning/lost: 40 returning, 28 lost

Starters returning/lost: offense 7/4, defense 6/5, kickers 1/1.

Key returning starters: Kirk Cousins, QB, Jr.; Greg Jones, LB, Sr.; Larry Caper, RB, So.

Others to watch: Jerel Worthy, DT, So. (Freshman All-American); Keith Nichol, WR, Jr. (converted QB); Johnny Adams, CB, So.

By the numbers: 19 - touchdowns thrown by Cousins last year, third best in the Big Ten. 468 - rushing yards by Caper, which led the team last year. 3 - bowl games in the last three years; the team has only reached four straight once.

Schedule: The opener with Western Michigan is followed by a game in Detroit with Florida Atlantic Sept. 11. Notre Dame visits Sept. 18, and the Big Ten opener, at home against Wisconsin, is Oct. 2. Road games at Michigan Oct. 9, Iowa Oct. 30, and Penn State to close the season Nov. 27, are the big tests.

Reason for optimism: Cousins and a defensive switch. Cousins finished last season as the third-best quarterback in the conference, and should only improve with experience after throwing for 19 TDs and only 9 INTs. The defense switches to a 3-4 in an effort to help the pass defense, ranked 112th in the nation, by getting more pressure.

Reason for pessimism: The pass defense and the rush offense. It’s hard to imagine the pass defense can rise up from the dregs of the nation, despite the switch to using more 3-4 on defense. The rush offense could also use some help, as last season’s leading rusher, Caper, only ran for 468 yards.

Bottom line: This team has a shot – a very, very outside shot – at contending for the Big Ten title if everything goes right. More likely, however, they will end up right in the middle of the pack and in their fourth straight bowl game, as the offense should become even more explosive but the defense will likely struggle in a transition year.

Tomorrow – No. 5: Penn State slipping from the upper echelon

Northwestern looks for third bowl in a row

By Brian Heinemann

For The Herald

Northwestern Coach Pat Fitzgerald is nothing if not confident.

With over 30 players returning who have starting experience and a team that’s gone to back-to-back bowls, he has every reason to be.

“With the number of starters we have coming back, we're excited about 2010,” he said.  “We have 17 wins over the last two years. And that foundation of success, I think, has provided us with motivation to take the next step.”

The next step for the Wildcats is to not just make their third straight bowl game – something the school has never done – but to win a bowl. The past two seasons have ended in overtime, both heartbreaking and motivating to the Wildcats.

The Wildcats ended the 2009 regular season on a wave of momentum, ousting Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin. That momentum could lead to a big start to the 2010, as the nonconference slate isn’t particularly challenging and the first few conference games are very winnable.

The surge started with the win at Iowa, a game that new starting quarterback Dan Persa got valuable experience in.

“Obviously, to play and win in that atmosphere meant a lot to our team, built our confidence a lot,” Persa said. “We took a lot from that game.”

Northwestern has a lot of skill on offense, a squad which topped the Big Ten in passing last year. But rushing is the problem, and that’s where the Wildcats have to improve if they want to contend for a Big Ten title.

“If you want to win the championship in this league, you have got to be able to run the football efficiently,” Fitzgerald said. “We define that by four or more on first down, half or more on second down, pick it up on third and fourth, and score on the goal line. It's not a complicated equation, but we definitely need to be better there.”

If they are, then my No. 7 team in the Big Ten, with a defense that has been getting better every year and returns a strong core this year, could finish near the top three of the Big Ten. 

If they aren’t, and they falter with a tough November schedule, they’ll finish in the middle of the pack or worse.

Northwestern Wildcats

Last year: 8-5, 5-3 Big Ten (tied for fourth)

Lettermen returning/lost: 55 returning, 20 lost

Starters returning/lost: offense 8/3, defense 6/5, kickers 1/1.

Key returning starters:Drake Dunsmore, SB, Jr.; Quentin Davie, LB, Sr.; Corbin Bryant, DT, Sr.

Others to watch: Dan Persa, QB, Jr.; David Arnold, S, Jr. (switched from linebacker to safety before the Outback Bowl last year); Arby Fields, RB, So.

By the numbers: 0 - times Northwestern has gone to three consecutive bowl games in school history, something they try to accomplish this year. 1 - rank of the passing offense in the Big Ten last year. 61 - years since Northwestern has won a bowl game.

Schedule: Six winnable games open the season, including Vanderbilt in the Sept. 4 opener and Central Michigan Sept. 25. NU opens Big Ten play with Minnesota Oct. 2 and Purdue Oct. 9 before hosting Michigan State Oct. 23. A tough November awaits the Wildcats, with road trips to Penn State Nov. 6 and Wisconsin Nov. 27, a home game against Iowa Nov. 13, and a game at Wrigley Field with Illinois Nov. 20.

Reason for optimism: The schedule and the pass offense. The Wildcats have a very realistic shot at starting 6-0, and if they can take down Michigan State at home, could be 8-0 heading into November, and they avoid Ohio State. The offense, despite having a new quarterback, ranked first in passing and fourth overall in the Big Ten last year and should put up big numbers again. New QB Persa gained valuable big-game experience against Iowa and Penn State last year.

Reason for pessimism: The late schedule and the rush offense. November is going to be a hard month for the Wildcats to find a win in, and unless they do win at least seven of their first eight, they could finish lower than anticipated in the Big Ten. The rush offense must improve after finishing 95th in the nation last year, but Fields, the projected starter, only ran for 302 yards in 13 games last year.

Bottom line: Northwestern should easily make it to its third bowl in a row, a first for the school. A fourth-place finish in the Big Ten, matching last year, isn’t out of the realm of possibilities, but the Wildcats will need some big upsets, akin to last year’s wins at Iowa and at home against Wisconsin in November. Expect them to finish in the bottom half of the conference, barely.

Tomorrow – No. 6: The Spartans could surprise the entire Big Ten

Purdue looking for second chance at unexpected success

By Brian Heinemann

For The Herald

Ball security, or a lack thereof, killed the Purdue Boilermakers last year.

“It was a nemesis to our football team, particularly early in the season,” Coach Danny Hope said. “If we had done a better job of taking care of the football from a ball security standpoint, we probably would have been one of the great success stories in college football.”

This year is an opportunity once again to be a great success story. Expectations, at least outside of the Purdue program, aren’t too high. They were tempered even further in the spring when sophomore running back Ralph Bolden went down with a torn ACL, putting his entire season in jeopardy.

With the addition of Miami transfer Robert Marve at quarterback and the return of Keith Smith at receiver, Purdue’s spread offense should still be in pretty good shape.

“Everything about Robert Marve excites me,” Hope said. “He's a great player. He's certainly one of the great quarterback prospects coming out of the country a couple of years ago. He's, I think, the most talented quarterback I've been around from a total package.”

The defense, led by one of the Big Ten’s most explosive playmakers in senior defensive end Ryan Kerrigan, has to replace the entire secondary. They were last in the league in rush defense last year but near the top in pass defense, something that could switch this year.

But turnovers will be the key. Last year, Purdue lived and died off them. They upset Big Ten champion Ohio State by forcing turnovers. They lost several games by doing the opposite.

“If you play hard, never give up, and take care of the football, you have a chance to win on any given Saturday,” Hope said. “I think our football team proved that last year. We weren't predicted to do so well last year. We were behind in a lot of areas, but the games we took care of the football we did well. We played hard and never gave up and found some big games to win.”

My No. 8 choice in the Big Ten, the Boilermakers avoid Iowa and Penn State, and a favorable nonconference schedule means they have a shot at returning to the postseason for the first time in three years.

Purdue Boilermakers

Last year: 5-7, 4-4 Big Ten (tied for sixth)

Lettermen returning/lost: 45 returning, 21 lost

Starters returning/lost: offense 6/5, defense 6/5, kickers 1/1.

Key returning starters: Keith Smith, WR, Sr.; Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Sr.; Jason Werner, LB, Sr

Others to watch: Ralph Bolden, RB, So. (tore ACL in spring, may or may not return); Robert Marve, QB, Jr. (transfer from Miami); the secondary (all four are new starters) 

By the numbers: 91 - catches for Keith Smith last year, to go with 1,100 yards. 4.5 - speed, in the 40-yard-dash, of Robert Marve. 13 - sacks by Ryan Kerrigan last year. 21 - combined margin of defeat in five of the seven losses last year.

Schedule: A trip to South Bend and Notre Dame starts the season and is followed by three winnable non-conference games, all at home. An Oct. 23 game at Ohio State looms, and that is followed with a road trip to Illinois Nov. 30. November has three home games, Wisconsin Nov. 6, Michigan Nov. 13 and Indiana Nov. 27, along with a road game at Michigan State Nov. 20.

Reason for optimism: Robert Marve and last season’s close losses. Marve led Miami to five straight wins two years ago, and brings more talent and athleticism to the position than Hope has ever been around. The Boilermakers lost five tight games last year and had two upsets, which could be a recipe for success this year.

Reason for pessimism: Turnovers, the secondary, and Bolden’s injury. Without the 29 turnovers last season, Purdue would have ended up in the postseason instead of watching from home. Having a secondary that’s breaking in four new starters is cause for major concern, even with five of the front seven returning. Bolden’s injury kills the Purdue running game, putting more pressure on Marve.

Bottom line: The addition of Marve should be enough to earn the Boilermakers some wins, and a bowl game is likely. The pass defense will take a severe hit with an inexperienced and young secondary, so Purdue will likely need the offense to put up a lot of points, and they have the offensive firepower to do so.

Tomorrow – No. 7: Northwestern poised to make team history

With a big offense, Hoosiers ‘D’ needs to finish

By Brian Heinemann
For The Herald

The 2009 season was full of missed opportunities and blown leads for the Indiana Hoosiers, who led nine games but won only four, losing three by three points or less.

This year, the buzzword around the Hoosiers is predictable – finish. But will a team that lost two-thirds of its defense and is transitioning to a new 3-4 scheme be able to do that?

“Our theme has been to finish, because we have so many games last year where we were competing and had the lead in the fourth quarter in the Big Ten and didn't finish the job,” Coach Bill Lynch said. “So that certainly has been our theme.”

Lynch said that the Hoosiers were only about 12 plays away from having an “outstanding” season and playing in a good bowl game, something that has motivated the team throughout the offseason.

But even with a nonconference schedule that should lead to four wins, the Hoosiers will be hard-pressed to make a bowl again this year. Finishing is one thing, but two brutal stretches, including back-to-back games with Michigan and Ohio State and a three-game series in November with Iowa, Wisconsin, and Penn State, makes it hard to believe that the Hoosiers can climb very far from the bottom of the Big Ten.

The offense, which ranked ninth in the conference last year due to a weak running game, looks to be much improved. Having a fifth-year senior quarterback in Ben Chappell, along with three gifted wide receivers who combined for almost 200 catches a year ago – Tandon Doss, Damarlo Belcher and Terrance Turner – means they should get better.

“The thing that's good is having a fifth‑year senior quarterback in Ben Chappell; when he talks, they listen,” Lynch said. “And that's much better than having a really good receiving corps with the freshman quarterback where they're all in his ear. They're not going to get in Ben's ear because he's in control of the situation and they know it.”

No matter how much the offense scores, the Hoosiers won’t go anywhere without a significantly improved defense. With eight new starters and the new scheme, the Indiana defense will again be susceptible. 

With their schedule, that means a finish near the bottom of the Big Ten again.

Indiana Hoosiers

Last year: 4-8, 1-7 Big Ten (tied for 10th)

Lettermen returning/lost: 43 returning, 24 lost

Starters returning/lost: offense 8/3, defense 4/7, kickers 2/0.

Key returning starters: Ben Chappell, QB, Sr.; Tandon Doss, WR, Jr.; Tyler Replogle, LB, Sr.

Others to watch: Damarlo Belcher, WR, Jr.; Terrance Turner, WR, Jr.; Jeff Thomas, LB, Sr. (transfer, 104 tackles last year)

By the numbers: 184 - catches between Doss, Belcher and Turner last year, third most in the nation. 268 - completions for Chappell in ’09, a school record. 2 - number of opponents IU plays for the first time ever, Towson and Arkansas State.

Schedule: An easy September, with Towson, Western Kentucky and Akron, is followed by a home tilt with Michigan Oct. 2 and a trip to Ohio State Oct. 9. November sees dates with Iowa Nov. 6, at Wisconsin Nov. 13 and home against Penn State Nov. 20 in one of the toughest stretches any Big Ten team faces.

Reason for optimism: The offense and the nonconference schedule. Indiana’s offense should put up big numbers this year, with sophomore running back Darius Willis coming off an impressive year and having eight starters back. The nonconference schedule should provide four wins.

Reason for pessimism: Inability to finish and a rough late schedule. Indiana couldn’t finish last year, and with two-thirds of the defense gone, that may not be able to be turned around. The November schedule is nasty, and could leave the Hoosiers with a four-game losing streak to close out the season.

Bottom line: The offense is ridiculously talented, with all of their skill position players back, but the defense, already ranked in the lower third of the nation last year, is changing schemes and trying to fill all kinds of voids. Indiana has a realistic chance at making a bowl game, but at least one conference upset will be needed and they can’t falter out of conference.

Tomorrow – No. 8: A transfer adds another spark to Purdue’s offense