Hawkeyes look BCS bound again, but not best in Big Ten

By Brian Heinemann

For The Herald

Defense wins championships. 

An uncertain offense, however, may be enough to prevent the Iowa Hawkeyes from doing so this season. Especially with Big Ten bully Ohio State looking even better than last year.

“We have tremendous special teams and defense, so when you’ve got those things on your side as an offense, you don’t really have to go out there and score 50 points,” Iowa quarterback Ricky Stanzi said. “We have guys that can stop people from scoring.”

At some point, though, Iowa is going to have to score. The offense showed flashes last year, with Stanzi throwing for 17 touchdowns, running backs Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegher combining for almost 1,500 yards and 13 touchdowns, and the emergence of Marvin McNutt at receiver.

But losing their starting center, two offensive tackles and a star tight end may be too much for Iowa to overcome this year. The offensive line is sorely lacking big game experience, and the running game, even with the return of Jewel Hampton, is suspect after finishing 99th in the country last year.

When you have a defense as good as Iowa has, though, all you need to do is limit mistakes. You can get by with a little less scoring, which is why the Hawkeyes still have a realistic shot at a Big Ten title.

“You have to let the defense do what they do, which usually is not let people move very far,” Stanzi said.

Helping the Hawkeyes is the schedule, which features home games against all the elite teams in the Big Ten. Outside of Ohio State, all of those teams will be coming looking for revenge, but the fact that tilts with Penn State, Wisconsin and Michigan State will all take place at Kinnick Stadium this year is big. 

Advantage, Iowa. Or is it?

“It was a big discussion point a year ago about our road schedule, and now it’s flipped around obviously,” Coach Kirk Ferentz said. “We really played well on the road for the most part last year. Conversely, it wasn’t like we just played lights out at home. We didn't have a lot of real smooth games here.

“I would just anticipate just about all of our games, if not all, are going to be really competitive, really tough, home or away.”

Iowa Hawkeyes

Last year: 11-2, 6-2 Big Ten, tied for second place

Lettermen returning/lost: 48 returning, 20 lost.

Starters returning/lost: Offense 6/5, defense 8/3, kickers 2/0.

Key returning starters: Ricky Stanzi, QB, Sr.; Adrian Clayborn, DE, Sr.; Tyler Sash, SS, Jr.

Others to watch: Riley Reiff, LT, So.; Micah Hyde, CB, So.; Jewel Hampton, RB, So. (missed last year due to injury); C.J. Fiedorowicz, TE, Fr.

By the numbers: 4 - national rank of Iowa’s pass defense in 2009. 86 - rank of Iowa’s scoring offense last year. 26 - sacks by Iowa’s front four last year; all four return.

Schedule: Iowa opens at home Sept. 4 with Eastern Illinois and hosts rival Iowa State on Sept. 11. A crucial road trip to Arizona and a 9:35 p.m. start time awaits Sept. 18, and the Hawkeyes return home for games with Ball State Sept. 25 and Penn State Oct. 2 in the Big Ten opener. Oct. 16 Iowa travels to Michigan, then comes back home to host Wisconsin Oct. 23 and Michigan State Oct. 30. Road games at Indiana and Northwestern come next – Nov. 6 and Nov. 13 – before the likely Big Ten championship game at home with Ohio State Nov. 20. The season closes out on the road at Minnesota Nov. 27.

Reason for optimism: The defense and home field advantage. Iowa’s defense, ranked 10th nationally last year, returns eight starters, including the entire dominant front four. The schedule is friendly in that Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan State and Ohio State, most of the Big Ten’s top teams, all have to come to Kinnick Stadium. 

Reason for pessimism: Offensive inconsistency and the offensive line. Iowa’s offense has the capability to be explosive, but Stanzi needs to cut down on his interceptions (15 last year) and the running game needs to greatly improve. The offensive line will be the deciding factor in how the 2010 season goes, though, and that’s a scary thought, as the likely starting five has minimal experience outside of Julian Vandervelde and Reiff.

Bottom line: This team is entirely capable of going 12-0 and ending up in the BCS National Championship game, assuming teams ahead of them fall off. The defense is one of the NCAA’s best, but the offense has too many questions, with an inexperienced offensive line, a weak rushing attack and a mistake-prone quarterback. Still, the Hawkeyes have tremendous poise and resiliency, and should be in the BCS again with an 11-1 season.

Tomorrow – No. 1: Ohio State once again cream of Big Ten crop