You have a spread option offense against a vanilla, run-first and take some deep shots group. You get a defense that has played at least three different schemes this season against one that never really changes what they do.
And you get two teams who play such a different style of football overall, it’s almost impossible to predict what may happen.
But that’s what I’m here for. I’ve had over four days in south Florida now with the teams and with the rest of the media, attending press conferences, interviews, practices and more. Now, it’s time to get down to exactly what to expect from tonight’s Orange Bowl.
IOWA OFFENSE VS. GEORGIA TECH DEFENSE
Playing a run defense like Georgia Tech’s could be just what the Hawkeyes need after finishing near the bottom of the NCAA in rush offense this season. Tech was gashed for 662 yards on the ground by Georgia and Clemson in their final two games, which bodes well for Iowa and its two freshmen running backs, Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegher.
Iowa’s passing game is somewhat of a question mark. Ricky Stanzi is back and 100 percent, but as my article yesterday pointed out, it’s hard to tell if that is a good or bad thing. Despite the leadership and poise he shows, he flat out throws too many interceptions. Luckily, he’s going against a miserable Tech pass defense that only has five interceptions on the year. Still, this is not a game Stanzi can afford to make mistakes. Tech controls the ball and scores boatloads of points, so any possession Iowa doesn’t score is going to be very damaging to their chances.
Still, Iowa has made big plays in the passing game most of the year, and against a weak Tech air defense Stanzi could be in for a big day.
Iowa has the advantage in the trenches – the front five is much bigger than most teams Tech has faced in the ACC – but not by much. The Hawkeyes will be employing a six-man rotation on the line, possibly shifting players to new positions to try to combat two members of the Yellow Jackets defense.
Derrick Morgan, a projected top five pick in the NFL draft if he comes out, is one of them. Morgan has wrecked opposing teams all season long and could have a field day against the right side of Iowa’s line, which includes true freshman Riley Reiff. Bryan Bulaga, by far Iowa’s best offensive lineman and possible first round pick in the draft, will have more success if Morgan lines up over him. Morgan moves around a lot – linebacker, both defensive end positions – so Iowa will be keeping an eye on him and you should too. The junior is an absolute game changer who has directly affected the outcomes of several Tech wins this season.
T.J. Barnes is the other person Iowa is having to gameplan around. Barnes is a 6-foot-7, 341 monster of a defensive tackle. As a redshirt freshman he isn’t the most talented player on the Tech defense, but his sheer size could wreak havoc, especially in the run game. The kid fills up a lot of space and could cause some problems.
Advantage: Iowa. Barely.
GEORGIA TECH OFFENSE VS. IOWA DEFENSE
Something has got to give here. That statement has probably been made hundreds of times since this game was announced, but it’s the only way to put it. You have the 11th ranked offense vs. the 11th ranked defense in the nation. You have a team that gives up almost no big plays against a team that makes them regularly.
And you have a team that has given up only eight rushing touchdowns going against a team that has scored an almost unfathomable 46.
Georgia Tech runs a spread option offense that Iowa hasn’t seen the likes of before. Iowa runs a pretty standard defense and doesn’t make many changes. Georgia Tech has a clear overall advantage here.
The Hawkeyes have some playmakers on their defense that will need to be at their best to try to slow down Georgia Tech. Nobody has stopped the Yellow Jackets this season, but Miami and Georgia proved that they can be contained. A.J. Edds and Pat Angerer face the biggest challenge, as the two standout Iowa linebackers will need to be at the top of their game to try to control the Tech rushing attack.
That attack includes a quarterback, Josh Nesbitt, who has 991 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns on the ground this year, Jonathan Dwyer, the b-back who has 1,346 yards and 14 rushing touchdowns, and A-back Anthony Allen, who has 597 yards (but a 9.8 average) and five rushing scores.
On any given play, Nesbitt can keep it himself or hand it or pitch it to either Dwyer, Allen or the other a-back, Roddy Jones. That kind of spread attack can create plenty of confusion and jumble up defensive assignments, so the Hawkeyes will face the stiffest mental test they’ve ever seen.
Don’t forget that Nesbitt can throw the ball, too. He only had 1,689 yards this season but threw for 10 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions. Catching over half of those passes is NFL-caliber receiver Demaryius Thomas, who has an absurd number of big plays this year and averages 25.1 yards per catch.
The Hawkeyes will have to be at their best to slow down Georgia Tech, but they won’t stop them. Something has got to give, and it’s likely to be the Hawkeyes defense.
Advantage: Georgia Tech
SPECIAL TEAMS, COACHING, INTANGIBLES
There’s not much that stands out from either team here. The Hawkeyes are average on special teams and the Yellow Jackets go for it on fourth down so often that their punter doesn’t matter. Both coaches are phenomenal and among the nation’s best, and the only real intangible here is that Georgia Tech has played – and lost – on this field once already this year.
Advantage: Even
PREDICTION
I’ve gone against my gut once this year, and it backfired on me. I said all year that Northwestern would topple Iowa and, come game day, I went against my own thoughts and picked Iowa to win. We all know what happened there.
My gut has been screaming Georgia Tech at me since this game was announced. The Yellow Jackets offense is one of the scariest in the nation, averaging over 300 yards rushing and controlling the clock better than any team in the nation. Iowa’s offense simply cannot keep up with the Yellow Jackets, so everything rides on what the defense is able to do.
The gut says 38-20 Georgia Tech. The heart simply can’t pick against the Hawkeyes after the year they have had. The defense should be able to stop Tech from making the big plays, and the offense will do just enough – as they have all season – to carry the Hawkeyes to their biggest bowl victory in decades.
Iowa – 27
Georgia Tech – 24
No comments:
Post a Comment