Tuesday, October 27, 2009

My NCAA Top 25

Last week ranking after record. Ranking of opponent is AP's ranking from last week.

1. Florida (8-0, #1) - W 29-19 over Ole Miss
Something just isn't going right with Florida right now. The offense is relatively stagnant, despite Tebow being healthy. They are too one-dimensional right now, and Tebow getting picked twice doesn't help that. Still, they are the defending champions and have beaten everyone they've played, so I can't drop them.

2. Texas (7-0, #3) - W 41-7 over Missouri
I considered Texas at #1, but couldn't do it. They've beaten Oklahoma and Texas Tech, but nobody else worth mentioning. Still, outside of OU, they have crushed everybody they have played. If Colt McCoy ever finds his 2008 form again, they will be nearly impossible to beat thanks to a sick defense.

3. Alabama (8-0, #2) - W 12-10 over Tennessee
Another team that is way too one-dimensional. Greg McElroy is the definition of a mediocre quarterback. Mark Ingram can't do it all by himself. 'Bama needed two blocked field goals (and another miss) to outlast a feisty –but not so good –Tennessee team, but a win is a win.

4. Cincinnati (7-0, #5) - W 41-10 over Louisville
The Bearcats dismantling of Louisville was impressive. That they did it without star quarterback Tony Pike is something that should terrify teams. The offense looked like it didn't miss a beat while Pike sat out after arm-plate surgery early this week, which bodes incredibly well for the Bearcats if Pike needs more time off.

5. USC (6-1, #4) - W 42-36 over Oregon State
I'm sorry, but a six-point win over Oregon State doesn't exactly inspire confidence in me. They have a very good offense even with a freshman, Matt Barkley, running the show. The big concern is the defense – apparently it's not just "reload" instead of "rebuild" at USC, because they sure haven't looked good after losing most of their starters to the NFL last year.

6. TCU (7-0, #10) - W 38-7 over #16 BYU
Max Hall called the TCU defense "The best I have ever played against." For years TCU has had a smothering defense, and this year is no different. People need to be talking about the Horned Frogs as a BCS buster, not Boise State. Remember, only one non-BCS team can get in, and it's going to be TCU when all is said and done.

7. Boise State (7-0, #4) - W 54-9 over Hawaii
They looked good in pummeling Hawaii, and they beat Oregon in the LaGarette Blount debacle, but they literally have played nobody since then. That doesn't make them a bad team, but after seeing what TCU could do to a solid Top 25 BYU team, they had to be dropped below the Horned Frogs.

8. LSU (6-1, #11) - W 31-10 over Auburn
Even though Auburn has been sliding, a 21-point win over the Tigers is impressive considering their resume. LSU's only loss was by 10 to #1 Florida, so a win in two weeks over #3 Alabama could vault them up the rankings.

9. Iowa (8-0, #7) - W 15-13 over Michigan State
They may be 8-0 for the first time in school history, but they've rarely looked like a Top 10 team in getting there. Is it better to be lucky than good? This team is both, but, realistically, they would need a lot more luck than good to beat any of the eight teams I've ranked above them. The National Title talk is unwarranted, but the Hawkeyes should end up in the Rose Bowl with a Big Ten championship on their mantle.

10. Penn State (7-1, #11) - W 35-10 over Michigan
If not for the loss to Iowa, Penn State would again be in title contention. Nobody has come within 18 points of the Nittany Lions, and yesterday's win over a much-improved Michigan team was the most impressive yet.

11. Oregon (6-1, #12) - W 43-19 over Washington
Notre Dame could barely handle Washington. USC lost to the Huskies. Oregon? They hung 43 and crushed them. They beat Utah. They beat then-#6 Cal. But now, the toughest test – and potentially the Pac 10 title –hang in the balance as Oregon takes on USC in six days.

12. Oklahoma State (6-1, #13) - W 34-7 over Baylor
Oklahoma State continues to roll without suspended WR Dez Bryant, but they'll need him to somehow get reinstated this week. Texas comes to town, so we'll know in a week whether the early season loss to Houston was the aberration, or if the Cowboys really aren't as good as they've looked at times.

13. Georgia Tech (7-1, #14) - W 34-9 over Virginia
This running attack looks unstoppable right now, which makes the defense an even bigger question mark. If you are running all over your opponent and controlling the time of possession, shouldn't your defense be doing a little better than they have been until yesterday? Still, the presence of Nesbitt and Dwyer make this team tough to pick against.

14. Virginia Tech (5-2, #15) - OFF
The schedule the rest of the way is ridiculously easy, which means Tech has a very realistic shot of easing back into the Top 10 and potentially getting into a BCS bowl.

15. Miami (5-2, #9) - L 40-37 to Clemson
This team is incredibly hard to figure out. They beat Oklahoma, Georgia Tech and Florida State, but got manhandled by Virginia Tech and lost to a crap Clemson team yesterday. If they played Georgia Tech or Oklahoma again I have a hard time imagining they would win, but this is still a talented team and you can't take away from the impressive opening month.

16. Ohio State (6-2, #17) - W 38-7 over Minnesota
Terrelle Pryor bounced back nicely after receiving a hefty dose of criticism last week, but that still doesn't make this offense particularly impressive considering it was against a porous Golden Gopher defense. Expect to see this team end up with at least three, potentially four losses, as dates with Penn State, Iowa and Michigan close out the regular season.

17. Pittsburgh (7-1, #22) - W 41-14 over USF
In the win over USF, Dion Lewis had his fifth 100-yard rushing game and topped 1,000 yards on the year. The Panthers are a surprise team, but they will need Lewis to have his best football ahead of him to keep moving up, as Notre Dame, West Virginia and Cincinnati await after a meeting with Syracuse Saturday.

18. Houston (6-1, #18) - W 38-15 over SMU
Houston pulled a switcheroo on the nation with the 23 point win over SMU - instead of winning with the arm of Case Keenum, they did it with the run game – three touchdowns – and a strong defensive performance. This team should finish 11-1, but the loss to UTEP likely will outweigh wins over Oklahoma State and Texas Tech in the end.

19. Utah (6-1, #19) - W 23-16 over Air Force
Needing overtime to beat the Falcons doesn't seem so great on paper, but remember, Air Force has one of the most opportunistic defenses in the nation. Still, the Utes haven't beaten anybody worth mentioning, and TCU and BYU await as the season winds down, so we still don't know just how good this team is.

20. West Virginia (6-1, #24) - W 28-24 over UConn
UConn had every reason to come out and pound West Virginia, but the Mountaineers showed their mettle in holding on for the win over the inspired Huskies. This is yet another team that's tough to gauge as they haven't played anybody particularly notworthy, but they'll get Pitt and Cincy back-to-back in November.

21. Notre Dame (5-2, #23) - W 20-16 over Boston College
For the first time in nine years, the Irish beat Boston College. It wasn't the best victory, but it was a nice bounce back after a heartbreaker to USC. The Irish defense is the best it's been in years, and the offense is always dangerous with Jimmy Clausen and an incredible corps of receivers. This isn't a top tier team, but the AP is underrating them.

22. Arizona (5-2, UR) - W 27-13 over UCLA
The loss to Iowa doesn't look so bad now, and they fell victim to Washington while the Huskies were hot. They have a very tough road ahead of them –Cal, Oregon, USC –but if Nic Grigsby keeps running for 7.5 yards per attempt, they can pull off some upsets.

23. South Carolina (6-2, UR) - W 14-10 over Vanderbilt
The win over Vandy wasn't pretty, but not much the Gamecocks do is. Saturday's matchup with Tennessee will be telling –the Volunteers have hung in with Florida and Alabama, so how South Carolina plays against them could answer some questions.

24. Oklahoma (4-3, UR) - W 35-13 over #25 Kansas
We already know Landry Jones is a quite capable backup to Sam Bradford, but the easy win over a good Kansas team still came as somewhat of a shock. This may be the best 4-3 team in college football history, but they still aren't THAT good, with or without Bradford.

25. Central Michigan (7-1, UR) - W 24-10 over Bowling Green
The Chippewas are still just outside of the AP's radar, but this team is good and led by one of the most underrated signal callers in the nation, Dan LeFevour. All he's done is pass for 16 touchdowns and rush for nine, while only throwing four interceptions. The only loss was to Arizona, but this team can't go much higher right now with their only marquee win being over Michigan State.

Dropped Out - BYU, Kansas, Texas Tech, Nebraska

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