The Hawk's Eye on Iowa vs. Indiana

When Iowa has the ball

We all know that the offense has been the question since day one of the 2009 season. Well now, things get even more questionable. With the loss of starting running back Adam Robinson and mid-season All American Dace Richardson on the O-line, the burden falls squarely on the shoulders of Ricky Stanzi this week.

While Brandon Wegher has shown flashes of brilliance over the course of the season, he's been miserable the last few weeks, rushing for under two yards per carry over the last three games. Behind Wegher is Paki O'Meara, who has barely seen the field since an early season fumble, and two true freshmen. The problem? Those freshmen are currently red-shirted. Ferentz hasn't ruled out using one of them if needed this week, but that would be a tough pill to swallow after sitting them for eight games already.

What it all translates to is more pressure on Stanzi to deliver. He avoided the big mistakes in the nail-biter over Michigan State, but his days of inconsistency aren't far enough in the rear-view mirror yet to forget about them. Stanzi needs to forget about the out-route to the right sideline – or at least stop staring it down – as that's where all his pick-sixes have come from.

The Indiana defense has the potential to make Stanzi's life miserable or fantastic tomorrow. They are banged up – and already weak – in the secondary, which means Stanzi should be able to have a big game. Two of Indiana's safeties – Jerimy Finch and Jarrell Drane – are both listed as doubtful for the game, and the Hoosiers haven't exactly had a light's out pass defense this season to begin with, ranking dead last in the Big Ten in the category. The fly route to either DJK or Marvin McNutt should make several appearances, as Stanzi will likely test Indiana deep to take advantage of the lack of depth at safety.

Where Indiana can hurt Stanzi is up front. Defensive ends Jammie Kirlew and Greg Middleton have combined for 8.5 sacks and 21 tackles for a loss, and in these teams' last meeting at Kinnick, in 2007, the two terrorized Iowa in racking up six sacks. Kirlew could be especially problematic, as he has forced a Big Ten-best five fumbles this season, and Iowa's Mr. Dependable in that department, Robinson (with zero) is out. Kirlew will be most dangerous to Iowa if either of the Hawkeyes red-shirt freshmen make an appearance.

Having an experienced replacement for Richardson in Julian Vandervelde will help Iowa in trying to contain IU's ends and open holes for the run game, but Iowa's offensive line has been suspect all season and looks to be over-matched up front this week.

Advantage – Iowa


When Indiana has the ball


The last time Iowa faced an offense similar to that of the Hoosiers was in the Michigan game, where Iowa struggled badly on defense. This Indiana team runs a dangerous spread/pistol/Wildcat offense that uses a lot of trickery and deception, and will likely give the Hawkeyes fits at points. Still, Iowa's defense is strong and should be able to keep the Hoosiers in check – at least better than they did against Michigan.

Indiana quarterback Ben Chappell is having a very Ricky Stanzi-like season to this point. He's been inconsistent, completing 63 percent of his passes and throwing for 1,827 yards, eight touchdowns and seven interceptions. His biggest target is sophomore receiver Tandon Doss, who through eight games has 54 catches for 716 yards and two touchdowns.

As a team, Indiana has rushed for 1,019 yards and a 4.0 average. They are led by red-shirt freshman Darius Willis, whose 405 yards have come at a 5.3 clip. Behind him, both Mitchell Evans and Demetrius McCray are averaging 4.9 yards per.

The strength of the Indiana offense is the offensive line, which has allowed a league-low nine sacks in eight games. Keeping Chappell upright is a paramount importance for IU, as Iowa's defensive line has been improving as the season goes on and, although only recording 17 sacks, has been getting to the quarterback more consistently.

Defensively, Iowa is intact this week despite the beating they took, physically, at Michigan State. Brett Greenwood is back after a scary hit, and everyone else is good to go. The rush defense has rebounded nicely since allowing Michigan to run all over them, and the defensive line is coming off a four-sack game in the 15-13 win last week.

Keep an eye out this week for Tyler Sash. He's been a ball magnet so far in his two years at Iowa, but has been relatively quiet the last few weeks and is due for another big play. If the front seven can contain the run and get to Chappell effectively, Sash could have another big game.

Advantage – Iowa

Special Teams

With Colin Sandeman likely out this week, Iowa has some questions in the return game. They should be OK with Sash, Spievey or even Keenan Davis back returning punts, but the fact remains that they lost their most consistent returner.

Iowa has the advantage of Indiana at both kicker and punter with Daniel Murray and Ryan Donahue, but the Hoosiers kickoff return team makes Iowa's look pitiful by comparison. Indiana leads the Big Ten in kickoff returns, averaging 25.9 yards per return, and has two touchdowns this season. The teams are relatively even in returning punts, but the field position battle could go IU's way thanks to their strong kick return squad.

Advantage - EVEN

Intangibles

Iowa has the distinct coaching advantage not only in Ferentz, but with Ken O'Keefe and Norm Parker as well. They have the 8-0 record and the No. 4 BCS ranking, and they are strong at home. Indiana is 4-4, but several of the losses were close. Still, they lost to Michigan, Ohio State and Northwestern in the Big Ten, and were embarrassed by Virginia 47-7.  Both teams are hit pretty equally with injuries right now.

IU is coming off a devastating collapse against Northwestern, and they claim they are ready for the challenge of the Hawkeyes. Last time they were here they manhandled Iowa, but those were two very different teams in 2007. The Hawkeyes are coming off an emotionally draining, incredibly physical win, so both teams have mental challenges ahead of them tomorrow.

Advantage - Iowa

Prediction


If the offense is ever going to have another big day for the Hawkeyes, it will come tomorrow. Stanzi stands to have one of the best games of his collegiate career, but the run game could very well hold him and the Hawkeyes back a bit. Indiana may have a complex offense, but Iowa has faced much better and emerged victorious so far this year.

This isn't the game Iowa loses this season – that's next week, against Northwestern, but that's a story for next week.

Iowa 30, Indiana 13