Brian Heinemann, who covers Iowa football for the Herald, previews this week's game.
IOWA CITY ––––– Penn State hasn’t forgotten the last trip it made to Iowa City, in 2008.
That day cost the Nittany Lions a shot at the BCS National Championship game. A last-second field goal lifted Iowa to a 24-23 upset and a late-season derailing of Penn State’s season.
The stakes may not be quite as high this time around, this being the Big Ten opener for both teams, but that doesn’t mean much to a team looking for a measure of revenge.
“Two years ago, we win that game and we very well could be playing for a national championship,” Penn State running back Evan Royster said at the Big Ten Media Days in August. “It’s tough to think about, it really is. Looking at the season ahead, hopefully we’ll get some payback.”
This year is a bit different. After pulling off the upset two years in a row, Iowa will be the favorite Saturday. Neither team is undefeated and in the national championship hunt.
But it’s early, and Saturday is the first game of what Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz calls an “eight-week football race” for the Big Ten title.
So far, it’s no secret who the team to catch in the Big Ten is. Penn State and Iowa know it. And to compete, to keep pace, both teams need a win Saturday.
“Historically, if you're hanging around waiting for Ohio State to lose three, four games, maybe even two, I think historically, that could be proven as a bad strategy,” Ferentz said. “If you're talking about playing at the top of the league, you better be at your best every week.”
Seemingly every time these teams get together, it turns into a knock-down, drag-out fight. The series couldn’t get more even, with each team winning 11 times, and both teams have been known for punishing, overpowering defenses.
Right now, the Hawkeyes have the No. 1 ranked defense in the entire nation. Ferentz and his Iowa players don’t put any stock in the numbers, but Penn State doesn’t need the statistics to know they are in for a fight.
“If it’s not the best defense we are going to play against, it’s certainly one of the five or six best in the country,” Penn State coach Joe Paterno said. “They’re awfully good.
“We’re not going to take the ball and jam it down their throat – they’re too good. We’re going to have to fight for our lives for every yard.”
Penn State’s fight is made a whole lot tougher having a true freshman quarterback under center. Robert Bolden has been under fire on the road already – his second game as a collegiate athlete was at Tuscaloosa in a loss to top-ranked Alabama – but this is something else altogether.
This is the Big Ten. This is an Iowa team that’s beaten Penn State seven of the last eight times they’ve met.
Nobody outside of Pennsylvania expected the Nittany Lions to beat Alabama. With the way Iowa and Penn State have gone at it over the last decade, though, anything can happen at Kinnick Stadium.
“I'm not sure why they'd be considered the underdog,” Ferentz said. “Again, I'm looking at a team that's won 51 games, five years, they don't give up points. I mean, I think our biggest margin of victory in this series is 12 points back in '03. We've had tough games with them or we've gotten nailed pretty good.
“I'm expecting this thing to be a real 60 minute game and hopefully we'll be in there in the fourth quarter.”
Who: No. 17 Iowa (3-1) vs. No. 22 Penn State (3-1)
When: 7:00 p.m. Saturday
Where: Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City
The series: Tied at 11-11
Last meeting: Iowa won 21-10 last year at State College
This week's challenge: Not digging themselves into a hole. Last year, Iowa fell behind the Nittany Lions by 10 before scoring 21 unanswered to pull away for the win. Two years ago, Iowa needed a last-second field goal to beat Penn State. Last year, Iowa showed it could play behind just fine. This year, in one opportunity, they showed that while they still can fight back, some of the magic might have run out. Iowa needs to take advantage of the home crowd and jump on Penn State early, forcing true freshman Robert Bolden to be the one attempting to lead a comeback.
To pull off an upset: The roles of the two quarterbacks would need to be reversed. If Ricky Stanzi plays like a freshman and makes bad decisions and Bolden plays like a seasoned veteran, Penn State will knock of the Hawkeyes.
Players to watch: Penn State’s offensive line could be in trouble after losing senior tackle Lou Eliades for the season last week against Temple. His replacement at RT is junior Chima Okoli, who just this spring switched from defensive line to offensive tackle. He’ll have his hands full with Broderick Binns and, if Iowa moves their d-linemen around as they did last week, Adrian Clayborn or others. For Iowa, all attention should be focused on running back Adam Robinson. The last thing the Hawkeyes want is to throw the inexperienced duo of Marcus Coker or Brad Rogers in at running back against a strong Penn State defense, so Robinson needs to shoulder a heavy load.
Gettin' down with Brian (four keys for Saturday):
First down — Starting fast. In three games this season, the Hawkeyes jumped all over their opponents and cruised. In the other, they fell too far behind and couldn’t complete the comeback. Iowa needs a strong start on offense to set the tone, pounding Robinson right at Penn State and opening up the play-action for later in the game.
Second down — Getting to Bolden. It’s been a best case scenario for the Nittany Lions, as their true freshman quarterback has barely been touched. Bolden has been sacked all of one time this season, tying Penn State for tops in the nation, and it wasn’t even Alabama that got him. Iowa needs to get to Bolden relentlessly to force him into mistakes and bad plays.
Third down — Holding on to the ball. Normally, this would apply to running backs. They haven’t been a problem for Iowa, though. Ricky Stanzi, on snap exchanges, and the wide receivers, with drops, have been. Those kinds of mistakes will kill the Hawkeyes against a tough conference opponent.
Fourth down — Kick coverage, kick coverage, kick coverage. At this point, it’s like beating a dead horse. Unfortunately, that doesn’t make the problem go away. Iowa looked good on kick coverage against Ball State, but the overall team speed and strength ramps way up this week. Iowa can’t give up big plays in the return game; they need to make Bolden and the Penn State offense work for every yard they gain.
Trivial tidbit: Iowa has never lost to Penn State in a homecoming game. The Hawkeyes beat the Nittany Lions 19-0 in 1930 and 24-18 in 2001. Iowa has won eight of its last 10 homecoming contests.
Did you hear?: Iowa defensive coordinator Norm Parker is finally out of the hospital – he was released mid-week – and could rejoin the team in some capacity next week during the bye week.
Bottom line: Iowa is simply the better team in this one. Not by a wide margin, but significantly better in several key areas. The Nittany Lions will slow the Iowa offense, but not completely stop it, while the Hawkeyes defense will make Bolden and company struggle to get anything going. Evan Royster will be running with a purpose for Penn State, out to prove recent critics wrong and try to help carry his team past the Hawkeyes for the second time in his career, but it won’t be nearly enough as the Hawkeyes run defense should keep him well under 100 yards, forcing Bolden to beat them. He won’t.
Final score: Iowa 24, Penn State 6
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